Tennessee Soybean Farmers See Cautious Hope in 2026 Season
China is buying again and prices are up, but Tennessee’s soybean farmers say the recovery still has a long way to go before it reaches pre-trade war levels.
NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE — Tennessee soybean farmers are heading into the 2026 growing season with improved morale after soybean prices ticked up from 2025 levels and China resumed purchasing U.S. soybeans. However, high planting costs and trade uncertainty continue to weigh on the industry, according to the Tennessee Lookout.
China Returns to Market After Trade Deal
China, the largest buyer of U.S. soybean exports, halted purchases in 2025 during tariff negotiations with the Trump administration, turning instead to soybean suppliers in South America. A trade agreement reached last fall ended that purchasing freeze, and Chinese orders have since resumed.
Soybeans cover approximately 10% of all U.S. farmland and are Tennessee’s top agricultural crop. More than 40% of U.S. soybeans are exported, and in recent years roughly 60% of those exports went to China, making the relationship between the two countries significant to the state’s farm economy.
Cautious Optimism Among Growers
Stefan Maupin, executive director of the Tennessee Soybean Promotion Council, described the current situation as an improvement from last year but warned the industry has not returned to its previous footing.
“There have been some positive movements in trade relations with China, specifically with soybeans, that have caused markets to improve over last year,” Maupin said Monday. “However, we are definitely not where we were in years past. For most farmers out there, the big question in front of them is, will it get back?”
Crops are in the ground and weather conditions have been cooperative so far this season, offering farmers some early relief. However, planting costs remain elevated, adding financial pressure even as market prices improve.
A Long Road to Pre-Trade War Levels
U.S. Department of Agriculture data shows that Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans remain well below levels seen before the trade dispute, according to the Tennessee Lookout. The gap between current import volumes and pre-trade war levels represents a persistent challenge for farmers counting on export demand to drive profitability.
Maupin characterized the road ahead as “daunting” despite the recent positive signals, reflecting a broader uncertainty that continues to define the outlook for Tennessee’s most important crop going into the summer growing months.
