Florida Democrats See Hope in New Polls Ahead of 2026 Gubernatorial Race
New polling shows Florida Democrats within striking distance in races for governor and attorney general, potentially ending nearly three decades of GOP dominance.
TALLAHASSEE, FLORIDA — Florida Democrats are cautiously optimistic about their chances in the 2026 elections after recent polling data shows competitive races for governor and attorney general, potentially breaking nearly three decades of Republican dominance in statewide offices.
A Stetson University poll reveals that Rep. Byron Donalds, long considered the frontrunner for governor, faces unexpectedly tight races against two Democratic candidates. Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings trails Donalds by just four points, while former U.S. Rep. David Jolly is within seven points of the Republican congressman.
Seven percent of voters remain undecided in the gubernatorial contest, according to the polling data.
Attorney General Race Shows Democratic Momentum
The race for attorney general presents an even closer contest, with former Democratic state Sen. José Javier Rodriguez leading incumbent James Uthmeier in at least one poll. Rodriguez, according to polling data, holds 42.8% support compared to 39.6% for Uthmeier, who was appointed to the position by Gov. Ron DeSantis.
The competitive nature of these races represents a significant shift for Florida Democrats, who have struggled to gain traction in statewide contests for years. Republicans currently hold supermajorities in both the Florida House and Senate and occupy all statewide elected offices.
Historical Context and Current Political Landscape
Democrats once dominated Florida politics for more than 150 years, with a brief interruption during Reconstruction. However, the political scene shifted dramatically by the 1970s as the Democratic Party became associated with civil rights while Republicans attracted what one analysis described as the “Party of Scared White People.”
The Republican ascendancy began with population growth from the Midwest and North, culminating in Jeb Bush’s election as governor in 1998. Since then, Republicans have maintained control of the state government for 28 years.
The current Florida Supreme Court reflects this conservative dominance, with all but one justice chosen by DeSantis. The court’s composition ranges from extremely conservative to what critics describe as justices who disregard constitutional principles. The lone moderate voice, Justice Jorge Labarga, will retire in January 2027, potentially opening another seat for a conservative appointment unless Democrats achieve an unexpected victory in the governor’s race.
Political observers note that while the polling data provides encouragement for Democrats, the party faces significant structural challenges in a state that has consistently voted Republican in recent statewide elections. The undecided voter percentage in the gubernatorial race could prove decisive in determining whether Democrats can capitalize on their current momentum or if Republicans maintain their grip on state government.
