Poll Shows Florida Democrats Competitive in November Statewide Races
New polling shows Florida Democrats running neck-and-neck with GOP opponents in governor and Senate races, driven by shifting non-party voters.
TALLAHASSEE, FLORIDA — A new statewide poll released Sunday shows Florida Democratic candidates running competitively against Republican opponents in major races this November, with non-party-affiliated voters shifting toward Democrats amid President Donald Trump’s declining popularity.
The survey of 1,834 likely Florida voters, conducted by two Miami Democratic consulting firms, found Democratic candidates either statistically tied or leading in key statewide contests one month after the party scored upset victories in two special legislative elections.
Governor’s Race Shows Statistical Tie
In the governor’s race, Democrat David Jolly trails Republican U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds by less than one percentage point in a presumptive general election matchup. The poll shows Donalds with 41.2% support compared to Jolly’s 40.5%, with 18% of voters remaining undecided.
Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings, who is challenging Jolly in the Democratic primary, was not included in the survey.
Senate Race Remains Close
The U.S. Senate contest shows an even tighter race between Republican incumbent Ashley Moody and Democratic challenger Alex Vindman, a retired U.S. Army Lieutenant Colonel. Moody leads with 43.4% to Vindman’s 42.2%, with 14% of voters undecided.
Michael Worley, president and CEO of MDW Communications, said the polling reveals a clear generational divide in the Senate race. Vindman leads Moody by 18 points among voters aged 25 to 34, capturing 44% support compared to Moody’s 26%. Among voters aged 35 to 49, Vindman maintains an 8-point advantage with 45% to Moody’s 37%.
Jacksonville state Rep. Angie Nixon, another major Democratic candidate in the Senate race, was not included in the polling.
NPA Voters Drive Democratic Gains
The poll suggests non-party-affiliated voters are increasingly moving toward Democratic candidates, according to Christian Ulvert, a longtime Democratic consultant and founder of EDGE Communications who helped conduct the survey.
“What we’re seeing in Florida is not unlike what we’re seeing across the country,” Ulvert said. “The environment is shifting in real time, and Democrats are clearly energized and galvanized in this moment.”
The survey was conducted across all 10 Florida media markets, with 100 respondents answering in Spanish. The poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
The polling results come as Florida Democrats seek to build on recent momentum from special election victories last month. The party has historically struggled in statewide races in recent election cycles, making the competitive polling numbers a potential sign of changing political dynamics.
EDGE Communications and MDW Communications conducted the survey, which also included polling on the state attorney general race featuring former Democratic state Sen. José Javier Rodríguez, though complete results for that contest were not immediately available.
